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15.5.1 Red List Index

Target 15.5: Take urgent and significant action to reduce the degradation of natural habitats, halt the loss of biodiversity and, by 2020, protect and prevent the extinction of threatened species

Goal 15: Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss

Custodian Organization: International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), BirdLife International (BLI)

Tier Classification: Tier I

To facilitate the implementation of the global indicator framework, all indicators are classified by the IAEG-SDGs (Inter-Agency and Expert Group on Sustainable Development Goals Indicators) into three tiers on the basis of their level of methodological development and the availability of data at the global level, as follows:

Tier I: Indicator is conceptually clear, has an internationally established methodology and standards are available, and data are regularly produced by countries for at least 50 per cent of countries and of the population in every region where the indicator is relevant.

Tier II: Indicator is conceptually clear, has an internationally established methodology and standards are available, but data are not regularly produced by countries.

Tier III: No internationally established methodology or standards are yet available for the indicator, but methodology/standards are being (or will be) developed or tested.

Source: United Nations Statistical Division

Definition: The Red List Index measures change in aggregate extinction risk across groups of species. It is based on genuine changes in the number of species in each category of extinction risk on The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species (IUCN 2015) is expressed as changes in an index ranging from 0 to 1.

Concepts: Threatened species are those listed on The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species in the categories Vulnerable, Endangered, or Critically Endangered (i.e., species that are facing a high, very high, or extremely high risk of extinction in the wild in the medium-term future). Changes over time in the proportion of species threatened with extinction are largely driven by improvements in knowledge and changing taxonomy. The indicator excludes such changes to yield a more informative indicator than the simple proportion of threatened species. It therefore measures change in aggregate extinction risk across groups of species over time, resulting from genuine improvements or deteriorations in the status of individual species. It can be calculated for any representative set of species that have been assessed for The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species at least twice (Butchart et al. 2004, 2005, 2007).

Rationale: The world’s species are impacted by a number of threatening processes, including habitat destruction and degradation, overexploitation, invasive alien species, human disturbance, pollution and climate change. This indicator can be used to assess overall changes in the extinction risk of groups of species as a result of these threats and the extent to which threats are being mitigated.

The Red List Index value ranges from 1 (all species are categorized as ‘Least Concern’) to 0 (all species are categorized as ‘Extinct’), and so indicates how far the set of species has moved overall towards extinction. Thus, the Red List Index allows comparisons between sets of species in both their overall level of extinction risk (i.e., how threatened they are on average), and in the rate at which this risk changes over time. A downward trend in the Red List Index over time means that the expected rate of future species extinctions is worsening (i.e., the rate of biodiversity loss is increasing). An upward trend means that the expected rate of species extinctions is abating (i.e., the rate of biodiversity loss is decreasing), and a horizontal line means that the expected rate of species extinctions is remaining the same, although in each of these cases it does not mean that biodiversity loss has stopped. An upward Red List Index trend would indicate that the SDG Target 15.5 of reducing the degradation of natural habitats and protecting threatened species is on track. A Red List Index value of 1 would indicate that biodiversity loss has been halted.

The name “Red List Index” should not be taken to imply that the indicator is produced as a composite indicator of a number of disparate metrics (in the same way that, e.g., the Multidimensional Poverty Index is compiled). The Red List Index provides an indicator of trends in species’ extinction risk, as measured using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria (Mace et al. 2008, IUCN 2012a), and is compiled from data on changes over time in the Red List Category for each species, excluding any changes driven by improved knowledge or revised taxonomy.

The Red List Index is used as an indicator towards the 2011–2020 Strategic Plan for Biodiversity (CBD 2014, Tittensor et al. 2014), and was used as an indicator towards the Convention on Biological Diversity’s 2010 Target (Butchart et al. 2010) and Millennium Development Goal 7. It can also be projected to assess future development scenarios (Visconti et al. 2015).

Limitations: There are four main sources of uncertainty associated with Red List Index values and trends.

  1. Inadequate, incomplete or inaccurate knowledge of a species’ status. This uncertainty is minimized by assigning estimates of extinction risk to categories that are broad in magnitude and timing.
  2. Delays in knowledge about a species becoming available for assessment. Such delays apply to a small (and diminishing) proportion of status changes, and can be overcome in the Red List Index through back-casting.
  3. Inconsistency between species assessments. These can be minimized by the requirement to provide supporting documentation detailing the best available data, with justifications, sources, and estimates of uncertainty and data quality, which are checked and standardized by IUCN through Red List Authorities, a Red List Technical Working Group and an independent Standards and Petitions Sub-committee. Further, detailed Guidelines on the Application of the Categories and Criteria are maintained (IUCN SPSC 2016), as is an online training course (in English, Spanish and French).
  4. Species that are too poorly known for the Red List Criteria to be applied are assigned to the Data Deficient category, and excluded from the calculation of the Red List Index. For birds, only 0.8% of extant species are evaluated as Data Deficient, compared with 24% of amphibians. If Data Deficient species differ in the rate at which their extinction risk is changing, the Red List Index may give a biased picture of the changing extinction risk of the overall set of species. The degree of uncertainty this introduces is estimated through a bootstrapping procedure that randomly assigns each Data Deficient species a category based on the numbers of non-Data Deficient species in each Red List category for the set of species under consideration, and repeats this for 1,000 iterations, plotting the 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles as lower and upper confidence intervals for the median.

The main limitation of the Red List Index is related to the fact that the Red List Categories are relatively broad measures of status, and thus the Red List Index for any individual taxonomic group can practically be updated at intervals of at least four years. As the overall index is aggregated across multiple taxonomic groups, it can be updated typically annually. In addition, the Red List Index does not capture particularly well the deteriorating status of common species that remain abundant and widespread but are declining slowly.

Source: United Nations Statistical Division

Data Source: Data for this indicator was primarily collected from the United Nations Statistics Division’s Open SDG Data Hub. National level data from the UN Statistics Division is compiled by the respective custodian for the SDG indicator, unless otherwise noted. To learn more about the data used in this portal, visit the about page.

Data is accurate as of October 31, 2018.

 
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15.5.1 Red List Index in the Sustainable Development Goals

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15. Sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, halt and reverse land degradation, halt biodiversity loss
15. Sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, halt and reverse land degradation, halt biodiversity loss

15. Sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, halt and reverse land degradation, halt biodiversity loss

Forests cover 30 per cent of the Earth’s surface and in addition to providing food security and shelter, forests are key to combating climate change, protecting biodiversity and the homes of the indigenous population. Thirteen million hectares of forests are being lost every year while the persistent degradation of drylands has led to the desertification of 3.6 billion hectares.

Deforestation and desertification – caused by human activities and climate change – pose major challenges to sustainable development and have affected the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in the fight against poverty. Efforts are being made to manage forests and combat desertification.

Related 15.5.1 Red List Index Targets

15.5

Take urgent and significant action to reduce the degradation of natural habitats, halt the loss of biodiversity and, by 2020, protect and prevent the extinction of threatened species